Unintended Consequences

Steel acknowledges that he did not invent the notion of tossing Davis out of office; a right-wing, anti-immigrant group in Southern California circulated a recall petition during the governor's first term. Steel even pooh-poohed the idea when it was broached by Ted Costa, an anti-tax activist based in Sacramento.

But shortly after Davis was re-elected last November, Steel appeared on a Los Angeles cable-TV chat show with former Democratic Party pollster Pat Caddell. Caddell, says Steel, suggested that given the poor election turnout, a Davis recall was almost a sure bet. Caddell, who calls himself a liberal, confirms that account. Steel says he began believing that a recall "revolution," with support from disgruntled Democrats, was a real possibility.

Steel came back on Morgan's show, and they again discussed a recall. Listening that day were Costa and Howard Kaloogian, a former Republican assemblyman from Carlsbad, in northern San Diego County. On Feb. 5, Steel, Morgan, and Costa held a press conference in Sacramento after filing an official notice of their intent to begin collecting signatures to place a recall on the ballot. The "recall Gray Davis" movement was formally launched -- and carried statewide by a wave of around-the-clock talk show chatter.

Costa, who had drafted the recall notice, proceeded to write the text of the recall initiative that would appear on the ballot, if enough signatures could be collected. He and Kaloogian also set up recall Web sites. But Kaloogian's site, RecallGrayDavis.com, was slicker and more user-friendly than Costa's davisrecall.com, says Morgan, so she and her fellow right-wing talking heads around the state steered their angry legions toward Kaloogian's URL. Costa, a sort of right-wing version of Ralph Nader, and equally dour, was disappointed that his competitor for the historical honorific of "father of the recall" had snapped up the best URL.

Kaloogian gives Costa credit for drafting the petition but notes that "Costa is not media savvy. He's hard to watch, hard to listen to. I was better on TV and radio, and that upset Ted." The ex-assemblyman also freely acknowledges Morgan as the "mother of the recall." Costa, on the other hand, is more circumspect about the significance of Morgan's role. "I filed the [recall notice]. I had been working on it [before January]. All of a sudden she is 'the mother' of the initiative? Humpf."

Costa and Kaloogian agree it was talk radio that drove the grass-roots recall movement until May, when GOP Congressman Darrell Issa of Vista began kicking in money to hire professional signature-gatherers and a high-powered public relations firm. Issa ultimately shelled out $1.8 million of his own cash. More than 2 million people signed Costa's petition (which was downloaded 450,000 times from Kaloogian's Web site).

But the recall's success opened a Pandora's box for conservatives. Suddenly, a host of big-name candidates were running, representing not just the right but the full political spectrum. The strongest liberal is Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante, who says he jumped in because he was afraid Davis would lose and his party needed a serious backup candidate. On the right, Tom McClintock entered the race along with wealthy L.A. businessman Bill Simon, who lost the governor's mansion to Davis last year.

To the chagrin of many conservatives, McClintock and Simon have been overshadowed by Schwarzenegger, the pro-choice, pro-gay rights Hollywood star who happens to be married to a member of the Kennedy clan.

"The biggest question of the recall is how much compromise conservatives can tolerate," says Bill Whalen, a research fellow at Stanford's Hoover Institution. "They are not monolithic. Some support abortion, some support gun control. Raising taxes is a line in the sand, though. The conservative unease with Schwarzenegger is more about the economy and fiscal issues than it is about social issues.

"Are conservatives going to vote for McClintock because they think he has a chance to win? No, it will be a protest vote. They will vote for McClintock to thwart Schwarzenegger. Lots of conservatives in California are still driving around with Barry Goldwater stickers on their bumper. They'd rather be right than win. It's what we call a 'circular firing squad.' Republicans line up in a circle and start firing at each other. The party is split down the middle: moderates vs. conservative right. ... The question is whether the party will bog down in an ideological struggle or rally itself to win."

Bruce Cain, director of the Institute of Governmental Studies at UC Berkeley, says the recall is a good illustration of the law of unintended consequences, as applied to politics.