West Coast Dockworkers Dispute Could Paralyze U.S. Economy

The modern, just-in-time global economy is often analyzed as a threat to workers, because fluid international markets mean that jobs can be outsourced anywhere. Overlooked is the fact that when companies depend on international logistics, they are at the mercy of workers who run the cargo network. "It's someplace you have great labor power," notes Ken Jacobs of the Labor Center.

The forthcoming negotiations will partly focus on how far the union's influence extends into companies' distribution networks. In the happiest of circumstances, the ILWU's influence might expand further into America's logistics system. The union's success might inspire, or perhaps even provide support for, other workers, such as the great masses of retail and service workers who toil without union protection.

In this column I've criticized unions such as the Service Employees International Union (SEIU), which has cut deals with employers at workers' expense. And I've lambasted Local 38 of the United Association of Journeymen and Apprentices of the Plumbing and Pipe Fitting Industry, which seems to be run as a family fiefdom for the benefit of SF labor boss Larry Mazzola.

But I make these arguments from a pro-union perspective that says America could be stronger with more powerful, honest, democratic, and, yes, wealthy unions such as the ILWU.

Steve Zeltzer, a Bay Area labor activist and videographer, tells me the ILWU is one of the more democratic unions. Hence its "caucuses" at the Cathedral Hill Hotel this week, in which members' representatives discussed which issues to press during the upcoming contract negotiations.

Many analysts nowadays associate weak labor unions with a high U.S. standard of living. This bizarre line of thinking says that cheap, imported tennis shoes, offshore tech support, and vegetables grown by workers paid less than minimum wage allow consumers a relatively high standard of living. Such logic says that if stockers, truck unloaders, and retail clerks were paid well, the rest of us would suffer such a reduced standard of living that it wouldn't be worth the higher wages.

But a paper released in December by U.C. Berkeley's Center for Labor Research and Education found that the impact on shoppers would be minimal if stores such as Wal-Mart increased workers' wages from their current near-minimum-wage status to a mere $10 per hour. The study also found that such an increase would be a bonanza for poor working families.

Additionally, Wal-Mart's status as a wage- and price-setting benchmark means that increased wages there could lift other workers' income as well. Economists love arguing about whether wages raised through collective bargaining encourage employers to hire fewer or more workers. For my part, I'll say that during the 2008 recession, workers will need power from wherever they can find it.

"I think the real challenge for the ILWU is following the work," Jacobs said. "Unions such as the ILWU and the Teamsters really are looking at the supply chain in terms of organizing."

Union organizing director Peter Olney says the talks will focus in part on efforts by shipping and other companies to move their cargo operations inland. This could either be a disaster for unions — as jobs are steadily removed from their orbit — or a boon, as union influence possibly moves deeper into the supply chain.

Plans for a so-called Southern California Logistics Airport in Victorville, which would place rail, air, and other unloading facilities about 100 miles inland from the Port of Long Beach, are part of the shipping industry's intent to relocate work currently done at West Coast ports. Shippers could theoretically use such ports to eliminate union jobs by moving inland work such as freight container dispatching and cross-country train loading. "There's knowledge-based technology work, but there's also good old-fashioned muscling and hustling of cargo," Olney said.

Pacific Maritime Association spokesman Steve Getzug said this year's contract negotiations won't be as contentious as they were six years ago, when shippers sought to reduce portside jobs by streamlining cargo operations. "With an early start, there will be the possibility of finishing without the disruptions of 2002," he said. "We're looking for an agreement that allows us to manage record cargo volumes as efficiently as possible."

ILWU communications director Craig Merrilees, however, is holding off on announcing a labor-management love fest. When I mentioned recent stories in the Journal of Commerce predicting peaceful negotiations, Merrilees said it was far too early to speculate about the outcome: "We won't really know until there's been an effort to sit down and see if we can resolve whether good jobs are going to be a priority."

If not, and if the two sides hold out past July, a port stoppage could create catastrophe. "The first day doesn't cost you much; neither does the third or fourth," Cohen said, adding that there comes a point when factories begin running out of supplies. "By the 30th day, my God: it's a grand snowball, and at some point the snowball becomes an avalanche."

I'm hoping that day never comes. If it does, I'll be rooting for the dockworkers.