Here is my short version of what I think is going on in global oil markets. Annual Brent prices doubled from $25 in 2002 to $55 in 2005. So, we had a strong price signal. And we saw a strong positive supply response, with global supplies of oil increasing across the board. Annual Brent prices doubled again, from $55 in 2005 to $111 in 2011 (with one year over year decline in 2009). In response, crude oil production was flat. We saw small increases in total petroleum liquids and total liquids (inclusive of low net energy biofuels), and we saw a material decline in Global Net Exports of oil (GNE) and in Available Net Exports (GNE less China & India's net imports), with the volume of oil that is available to importers other than China and India falling from 40 mbpd (million barrels per day) in 2005 to 35 mbpd in 2011. And on the demand side: Here is a chart showing normalized oil consumption from 2002 to 2010 (BP data) for China, India, top 33 net oil exporters and for the US: http://i1095.photobucket.com/albums/i475/westexas/Slide1-16.jpg The chart is not yet updated for 2011, but the trend on the chart continued in 2011, to-wit, China, India and the oil exporting countries showed increasing oil consumption as Brent prices doubled from $55 in 2005 to $111 in 2011, while consumption in the US (and in most other oil importing OECD countries) fell. Therefore, while slowly increasing US oil production will help, the dominant trend we are seeing is that the US, and most other developed oil importing OECD countries, are--so far at least --gradually being priced out of the global market for exported oil, as annual global (Brent) crude oil prices doubled from 2005 to 2011. For more info, you can do a search for: Peak Oil Versus Peak Exports.