Asked why she chose 24th Street, Alley Cat Books owner Kate Rosenberger shrugs, "Someone was going to do it."
Rosenberger, who sports a gray shag haircut with multicolored highlights, has an unwitting habit of landing early in gentrifying neighborhoods. She opened Phoenix Books on the Noe Valley stretch of 24th Street in 1985, and Dog Eared Books on Valencia in 1992. She hopes 24th Street will be spared the upscale homogenization of those strips.
Anna Latino
Gourmet sandwich shop Pig & Pie preserves the signage of a previous generation.
Anna Latino
Kate Rosenberger has opened bookstores in Noe Valley and on Valencia Street, and hopes 24th Street is spared homogenization.
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"There's so much going on down here," she says of the street beyond Alley Cat's hardwood floors.
The incoming tide of affluent young white people into the Mission resonates change all the way out to its farthest corner. Even after the dot-com bubble burst, they have continued to come to the Mission. Economic forces drive the trend, of course, but individually, newcomers are lured by their compatriots and the neighborhood's reputation for being an exciting, diverse place to live. It's the same song being played on street corners in Los Angeles' Echo Park, Austin's east side, and pretty much all of Brooklyn.
Common to that song is that the neighborhood's Latino population is waning, however. Latinos, who once accounted for nearly half of the Mission's population, now make up just over a third, according to the most recent census data. For whites, the numbers are reversed. White Mission dwellers are also much better off than their Hispanic neighbors: The median income of a white household, $102,245, is more than twice that of a Hispanic household.
Rents have continued to edge upward. In the spring of 2012, as the tech industry and others picked up their hiring, rents in the trendier northwest corner of the Mission spiked upward, says Deborah Brown, a leasing agent with J. Wavro Associates.
Higher residential rents push nearby commercial rents higher, experts say. And for businesses that serve working-class Latinos, they also erode their customer base; regulars move away and only return sporadically, shopping as much for nostalgia as for products.
La Victoria's Latino customers increasingly come on weekends to stock up for the week, Maldonado says.
"They used to live down the street, around the corner; they no longer do. Those are the ones that used to buy here every day. So now it's a challenge to fill your everyday consumer dollar. If they all move to Watsonville because their home got repossessed, that makes a huge difference," he says.
Many merchants can no longer afford to live in the Mission. Maldonado packed up for Ingleside in 2007. The family that runs Ayuntla, the pop-up restaurant that opened inside Casa Sanchez, was forced out of its previous location by condo development; the older generation lives on 22nd Street, but the younger generation has settled in Daly City. Nazzal, who's Middle Eastern, lives in South San Francisco.
Unlike the Mission's white residents in the 1950s, who later moved to the suburbs, most Latinos aren't leaving the neighborhood by choice. They leave behind the Mission's strong cultural fabric to secure lower rents, sometimes in troubled East Bay neighborhoods like West Oakland.
"The reality is the Mission has not always been a Latino community. It was German; it was Irish; it was Polish. But the people who left went to better places, and now the Latinos who are leaving are going to worse places — places where they don't have the resources and they have more crime," says Eva Martinez, a San Francisco native and former executive director of Acción Latina, a cultural nonprofit with offices on 24th Street.
Taking an even longer view, it becomes clear that the Mission, far from being shaped by sudden cultural popularity, has been in a huge, constant, often bloody state of flux that complicates easy notions of gentrification. Almost since the Spanish mission that gave the neighborhood its name was founded in 1776, the Mission District has been a canvas colored by the city's shifting economic tides.
The Mission sits on a valley floor surrounded by Twin Peaks to the west, Potrero Hill to the east, Bernal Hill to the south, and to the north sand dunes were leveled to create the South of Market neighborhood.
The Spanish mission shattered the Ohlone Indian settlements that had occupied the valley. When the missions were abandoned just a few decades later, some affluent Hispanics stayed behind. But before long they were muscled out by merchant-class white settlers who followed the 1849 Gold Rush.
The developing American city's earliest streetcar routes connected the Mission to SOMA, which has historically worked as a kind of staging ground for downtown. SOMA was divided between industrial and port-related industries, and working-class housing for new immigrants. As each subsequent wave became more established, workers would flow out to live in the Mission.
The neighborhood developed east from the site of the Mission Dolores and south from SOMA, unfolding gradually toward what is now the district's southeast corner at 24th Street and Potrero Avenue. Commerce first sprang up on 24th Street in the latter half of the 19th century to serve these outlying residents, who were cut off from the commercial strips on Valencia and Mission streets by a diagonal rail spur.