Three months out from the June 5 San Francisco mayoral election, political junkies have a new poll over which to salivate, obsess, and draw conclusions. A survey of San Francisco voters whose results were published in today’s San Francisco Chronicle Matier & Ross column indicates that former interim acting mayor London Breed has grabbed the lead in the race, while District 6 Sup. Jane Kim is in second place — but within striking distance by less than the poll’s margin of error.
The surprise is that former state senator Mark Leno has slipped to third place. A January poll had him in first place, though that poll was conducted by a different organization, prior to the filing deadline, and before several other potential candidates dropped out.
This poll has London Breed in first place at 29 percent, Jane Kim in second at 26 percent, and Mark Leno in third at 19 percent. Former supervisor Angela Alioto is in fourth place at eight percent. Remaining candidates Amy Farah Weiss, Richie Greenberg, Ellen Lee Zhou, and Michelle Bravo pulled a combined three percent.
Nearly 15 percent polled were still undecided, and this survey by Oakland pollsters Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates has a 4.6 percent margin of error.
“Breed and Kim have really moved ahead of the pack here,” pollster David Metz told the Chronicle. “Leno, who folks early on thought might be the favorite, is struggling to get traction.”
Keep in mind this poll surveyed only 462 likely voters — or about .00053 percent of the city’s population. Additionally, the poll was conducted about two weeks ago, so the landscape may have shifted since then.
The poll does take San Francisco’s ranked-choice voting into account, as voters can pick as many as three candidates for an office. Putting these results through the ranked-choice filter, Breed beats Kim by a 56 to 44 percent margin.
The election is still three months away, and these results differ pretty starkly from polling conducted two months ago. Factor in that a double-digit percentage of voters is still undecided, and this could still be anyone’s race.